Good morning and happy bitterly cold Saturday. Looks like the cold air will be with us for several days so try to stay warm. BTW, that doesn’t give you an excuse to skip church tomorrow unless you are afraid of your car breaking down and then you getting frostbite or hypothermia. In that case, call an Uber or someone with a decent car.
Some of you are aware of the monumental holiday that was just celebrated in the U.S. In case you aren’t, February 2nd was Groundhog Day. Yippee. I’m kinda surprised it isn’t one of the 87 Federal holidays that shut everything down. Anyway, Groundhog Day is a tradition that goes back at least to 1887. Isn’t that incredible? People have looked forward to the day with eager anticipation for over 130 years. This year was no exception. Weather forecasters, news people, prognosticators, and groupies from the U.S. and around the world took interest in what took place in Punxsutawney, PA on Tuesday. The tradition holds that if Phil emerges from his hole in the ground and sees his shadow, then we will have 6 more weeks of winter. However, if he doesn’t see his shadow, then are early spring is predicted. Sadly, for those of us that despise winter, he saw his shadow and now we are stuck with 6 more dreary weeks of cold and snow. Think about it, this weather we are enduring right now is a direct result of that celebrity groundhog in Punxsutawney. That is some serious power that he wields as a prophet of either doom or delight (depending on your seasonal affections).
Obviously, I am being facetious. The little furry forecaster has nothing whatsoever to do with the weather. In fact, it’s doubtful whether they can actually tell if he does or does not see his shadow. One would think that would be based on whether the sun was shining on February 2ndor not. Also, whether Phil is actually aware of the whole concept of shadows and whether he has led his star status go to his head. Who knows, maybe he is more focused on getting the right angle for the cameras so he can sell more merch. We will probably never really know what goes on in the mind of that furry little rodent. Or is it a mammal? Anyway, here is something that I found interesting. As I thought about this wonderful tradition that helps America be the last remaining superpower, I wondered about the accuracy of his predictions. Thankfully, Al Gore invented the internet and we can now search for meaningless facts all that we want. Fortunately, I was not alone in my curiosity about this serious matter. Several weather stations and others had already crunched the numbers. And here is the operative question – is Phil a prophet or a charlatan? Well, let’s let science speak for itself. Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil (the original and the successors that bear his name) have been correct less than 40% of the time! Wow, that is awful. You could just flip a coin each year and have a better success rate. You could make some serious coin with the bookmakers in Vegas by betting against Phil each year. In fact, we should sell our Gamestop stock and short the market on Phil.Inc. What is kind funny is that he has a 130 year track record of being wrong most of the time, and yet people still think his forecast will come true each year.
As I thought about this it dawned on me that we have the tendency to believe things that aren’t accurate. Of course, the devil is a deceiver and he is really good at it. But, for some reason, there are things that we want to believe even in light of evidence to the contrary. We want to believe that a little sin is ok. We want to believe that we can handle temptations and more mature things since we are “mature” in our faith. We tend to believe the lies of the world even though we have the Bible that clearly contradicts much of what is popular, acceptable and endorsed in modern society.
Let us hold fast to the truth. Let’s not live in a make believe world where we trust furry rodents, false prophets, phony assertions about what is right and wrong. Let us not believe the lies that this world is propagating about how to live our lives.
Something to think about.
Larry
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